Stop! Too much solar power!
Germany is on the verge of a catastrophic explosion. The grid just can’t handle it.
Ok, so this breaking news story does have words like ‘catastrophe’, ‘disaster’ and ‘exploded’ in it. It also has an expert from Deutsche Energie Agentur saying the equivalent of Scotty from Star Trek’s “They canna take it nae more Captain!”. All because they offered the public a financial incentive to install solar panels. It sounds to me like the next item on the strategic agenda for all of us will be to start asking for more capacity to cope with extra solar power, rather than having to cap it.
Beware: you are about to enter a world where terms like “feed in tariffs” are bandied around as if we all fully appreciate their meaning. And gigawatts, lots of gigawatts.
German Grid Aching Under Solar Power. The German electricity grid faces instability because of too much solar power, an expert said.
Thanks to a generous feed-in tariff, the installation of rooftop solar panels and large-scale photovoltaic plants has exploded in Germany. Stephan Kohler, chairman of the DENA agency, an energy adviser to the government, has warned that the green boom could turn into a disaster for Germany’s aging power grid.
“The network is facing a congestion due to solar power,” Kohler told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper. “That’s why the expansion of solar power has to be cut back quickly and drastically.”
Experts have long called for an overhaul of the European power grid to integrate the fluctuating renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. Experts forecast between 8 gigawatts and 10 GW of solar power capacity to be installed this year — the equivalent of roughly 10 large coal-fired power plants. In 2009, only 4 GW were installed.
Well aware that the industry is maturing more quickly than anticipated, Berlin this year agreed to reduce subsidies for rooftop panels by 16 percent. The decision helped the German industry to a first-half sales boom, as private customers ordered panels in droves to beat feed-in-tariff reductions set for this summer.
Strong sales have continued until now, however, with experts forecasting a similarly strong 2011 when it comes to new installations. If the current trends continue, Germany would have a solar power capacity of nearly 50 GW by 2013.
“That would be a catastrophe for the grids,” Kohler said, urging the German government to cap the installation of new solar panels at 1 GW per year. “Then we could reach the manageable benchmark of 30 GW in 2020,” he said.
The German government through the Renewable Energy Law, or EEG, regulates the feed-in-tariff aimed at boosting power production from renewable energy sources. Paid by German taxpayers via their electricity bill and guaranteed for 20 years, the levies vary from 21 cents per kilowatt-hour for offshore wind turbines to 46 cents per kw/h for roof-mounted solar panels.
Berlin has vowed to gradually reduce subsidies but EEG-related costs will nevertheless rise significantly over the coming years, experts have warned. The German consumer association VZBV claims that the solar panels installed in 2010 will result in additional costs of $36 billion during the next 20 years.
The German government has so far not voiced plans to limit solar power installations; an overhaul of the EEG isn’t planned until 2012.
This is a press release. It is from From OfficialWire
We have some questions about this article. Here they are. Let us know yours:
Are there any other experts out there to confirm or challenge this? Is there another side to this story? Is anyone anywhere else aware of these issues?
As an electrical engineer, the argument of Mr. Kohler does not sound reasonable to me.
“The network is facing a congestion due to solar power,” Kohler told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper. “That’s why the expansion of solar power has to be cut back quickly and drastically.”
The electrical power distribution system is not like communication system that carries two way traffic. Unlike communication system, in electrical distribution if sinks start generating power more than their consumption, and it is in synchronism with grid power supply, the net current from grid, and hence power plant will reduce.
The grid usually serves as a load dispatch point, i.e. in layman’s terms, it takes electrical energy from Power Generation System (usually large power plants), and feeds it into the transmission lines delivering power to intermediate transformers that eventually deliver power to consumers.
Now when consumers themselves generate electricity through solar panels, and if it is more than their consumption, they can be allowed to feed in the residual power generated from solar power system to the commercial electric lines subject to the condition that the feeding is enabled through a system that synchronizes the excess power from consumers to the grid.
Net effect would be the current or flow of energy in reverse direction, but it must be less than the levels for which grid was designed assuming that initially all consumers were just consumers; not producers.
Thanks for painting the picture from somebody that actually is familiar with this issues.
Honestly, I’m wondering whether the issue is not with the money German government have to pay in subsidies, not the grid capabilities as such.
With economical crisis that many/most/all European countries face these days, huge bills that German taxpayers have to pay from their pockets in connection to this programme are very important factor for me.
I think the statement of environment minister quoted in following news depicts the true picture:
http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/germany-france-cut-support-solar-power/article-189131
“The environment minister said that the planned cuts were due to the success of the solar sector, which had led to over-subsidisation of the industry. The feed-in tariffs have come under pressure, as the price of solar panels has dropped by around a third due to oversupply in the past year.
So, you are right, it’s economics not the grid congestion.
I have found an interesting opinion from an expert – Frank Asbeck – reasonable one. In this article he states:
http://news.frbiz.com/germany_intends_to_reduce_solar-404447.html
‘[…]said recently that the German government subsidies for solar industry will be cut by 9% in the year-end may further reduce by 5%. The news sparked concern about the prospects of the photovoltaic business, but the number of the industry in an interview yesterday, said the declining cost of PV modules, companies should be able to digest the move.’
Solar energy modules getting cheaper and more efficient every year, so those budget cuts won’t have that much of an impact probably. German government might need some other solutions as well to reach their target in reducing solar energy output.
I just found an interesting debate on same issue supporting my point of view:
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/10/21-0
I think the logic behind cutting subsidy could only be pressure from large power generation companies that have to keep their generators running just to balance the frequency while net energy flow out of those generating stations has been drastically reduced, thereby generating a shortfall in revenue of those companies.
This is true Krish, that was my another idea behind this whole problem. Standard power generating companies that are on the market for years now – start to feel the axe on them. Top management – politics connections have always been an issue, in any given country around the world. Maybe this is the case as well?
That is, for sure! A power generation company has to invest billions, and it cann’t stop its generators if demand fluctuates. Any generator that’s just running in synchronism consumes fuel even if it is not giving out energy.
The companies who have already invested so heavily can’t withdraw from ROI so easily.
Fortunately or not – this is how it goes in our world. Some things are replaced by other – newer, better, more innovative, you name it. Walkmans were replaced by cd-players, and those were replaced by mp3′s and later mp4′s.
Sure standard, for example coal, power plants invested heavily, but with time, will be replaced by other types of power plants – is there a way back from this road? Probably not.
Agree!
These subsidy cutbacks can’t even stop the growth of alternate energy means.
Those companies need to find other areas of investment, e.g. building large power generation facilities based on Solar, Wind, or Tidal Wave power generation systems.
Germany is nothing unique with their energy subsidies cuts. More insight in this article:
http://www.environmentalleader.com/2010/07/30/europe-cuts-energy-subsidies-calls-for-tougher-emission-reductions/
‘Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the Czech Republic have all announced subsidy cuts. As an example cited in the article, Spain, which has had years of generous subsidies for renewables, will cut €1.3 billion ($1.7 billion) off the national budget by 2013, primarily by cutting susidies for the wind energy sector by 35 percent over the next 30 months.
[…]
The UK may be next as it seeks to reduce a deficit of more than 160 billion pounds ($250 billion), according to the article. The UK’s independent Committee on Climate Change is calling for the government to maintain the £550 million ($859 million) a year it spends on clean energy.’
Actually we both agreed on the reason being more economy related than technical. But I wonder how Stephan Kohler, chairman of the DENA agency, an energy adviser to the government, has related the issue with congestion in grid, a technical reason.
I just read his biography. He is an expert in power engineering having several publications in related field.
I still wonder if there is really a technical reason beyond the my level of knowledge, or it’s just political pressure that could make Kohler release such statement? At least I can’t expect political pressure in developed economies like Germany!
Seems I’m not that techy guy as you Krish, so not sure if technical reason is possible in this case.
Germany or not – don’t think Mr. Kohler is 100% independent in his statements, rather all is agreed beforehand with right people in Germany’s government. Someone decided that highlighting the technical problem with power grid is the way to go, hence our discussion.
http://www.greenfudge.org/2010/02/28/germany-considers-solar-and-wind-power-cutbacks/